Plant Biology Professor Brian Beckage (with a joint appointment in the Department of Computer Science and a Gund Fellow) is co-author of the recently published study in the journal Nature entitled, Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system. The research indicates that public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of climate mitigation and technologies, and how political institutions respond to public pressure are all important determinants in how much the climate will change over the 21st century.
Beckage stated in an article published on the UVM website, “Our research suggests that feedbacks between climate change and the social system will limit the extent of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and projected climate chang eand this is not reflected in the fixed emissions pathways.” Beckage also stated, “Changing policies, new technologies, direct experience of the weather, shifting opinion, social conformity, and many other factors change our perceptions of climate change and create feedbacks into the system. And these feedbacks reinforce each other and they can lead to rapid changes in behavior that the fixed narratives in other models don’t consider.”